Resilient by Nature: When Affordability Falls, the Outdoors Still Rises
One kid, one field, endless return on investment. The outdoors is New Hampshire’s most reliable growth sector. Photo: Backyard Concept
NH’S OUTDOOR ECONOMY OUTPACES RETAIL SLOWDOWN
New Hampshire families are feeling the pinch. Mortgage costs have doubled since 2015, child care now rivals college tuition, and health deductibles have tripled. The New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute’s Affordability Eroded report makes it clear: even with a median household income near $100,000, a typical four-person family still falls about $2,000 short of covering basic needs. Yet while the cost of living climbs faster than paychecks, one corner of the state’s economy continues to grow—the outdoors.
According to New Hampshire Employment Security, the arts, entertainment, and recreation sector—home to the state’s outdoor recreation businesses—has been the fastest-growing private industry in 2025, up 9.5% year over year and outpacing both retail and hospitality, which declined statewide. Wages in recreation rose 7.4%, exceeding inflation and strengthening the case for the outdoor sector as a key driver of rural vitality, workforce attraction, and quality of life.
Drawing on findings from four new reports— the NH Employment Security Economic Analysis (2025), the Outdoor Industry Association’s Holiday Outlook, Deloitte’s 2025 Retail Survey, and the New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute’s “Affordability Eroded”—a consistent picture emerges.
Even as households tighten budgets and rethink what’s essential, the outdoors continues to attract time, talent, and investment. The Granite State’s outdoor economy isn’t simply weathering a storm; it’s revealing what a sustainable, values-driven model of growth looks like in real time.
Consumers Are Buying Less, But Living More
Nationally, Deloitte’s Holiday Retail Outlook reveals that consumers plan to spend 10% less overall this season, marking the lowest confidence levels since the late 1990s. Yet beneath the pessimism lies a shift, not a shutdown. Deloitte notes that more than half of U.S. consumers expect the economy to weaken, but nearly half also plan to gift experiences over goods—a record high, and a 7% jump from last year.
The Outdoor Industry Association’s 2025 Holiday Report confirms that the pivot isn’t away from spending entirely—it’s toward meaningful, experience-driven purchases. Outdoor retail sales are projected to grow modestly (+3%), powered by durable, multi-purpose gear like trail shoes, packs, and winter layers. These are the purchases that extend time outdoors, not clutter closets.
This behavioral shift mirrors a larger economic reality: in an era of high costs and limited disposable income, people are choosing value that endures. The outdoor economy sits squarely in that sweet spot—where spending feels like self-investment, not indulgence.
Outdoor participation data over the past three years show that even as consumer confidence falls, engagement in local recreation and short-distance travel rises. That’s because the outdoors meets multiple needs at once: it’s affordable, restorative, and social. A trail run or a day on the mountain is both an escape and a coping mechanism in a high-cost world.
For outdoor brands and businesses, this isn’t bad news—it’s validation. The outdoors has become the new measure of well-being: a place where lifestyle, health, and economy intersect. It’s no longer a niche; it’s the nation’s preferred investment in quality of life.
The Granite State in the Middle of the Trend
Here at home, New Hampshire’s economic data reflects these national shifts in real time. While traditional tourism sectors—retail, food service, and lodging—have slowed, the recreation, guiding, and outdoor education industries continue to expand. Rural counties like Carroll, Grafton, and Belknap are leading that surge, driven by amenity-rich towns, evolving trail systems, and small businesses that blend tourism with year-round community life.
“The outdoor economy is quietly becoming an affordability strategy.”
This momentum isn’t just a seasonal spike; it’s evidence that the outdoor economy is becoming a structural pillar of rural stability. As manufacturing consolidates and service jobs flatten, outdoor recreation is filling the gap—creating local employment, attracting visitors, and supporting a growing network of entrepreneurs who build their livelihoods around access to nature.
But the implications go further. In a state where housing, childcare, and health costs continue to climb, the outdoors is doubling as both a quality-of-life asset and an affordability strategy. Access to recreation helps communities retain young families, support workforce satisfaction, and counterbalance the higher cost of living. For many Granite Staters, time outdoors is no longer a luxury—it’s the most reliable path to balance, health, and belonging in a tightening economy.
Policy Lens: Building Where Resilience Already Lives
Across all four reports, one message comes through clearly: resilience isn’t accidental—it’s built. The outdoor economy’s continued growth, even as retail and discretionary spending falter, underscores that communities with access to the outdoors are better positioned to weather economic shocks. Recreation creates stickiness: it attracts and retains people, supports small businesses, and reinforces a sense of place that pure consumption can’t replicate.
New Hampshire’s challenge now is to turn that organic strength into intentional strategy. The state’s affordability crisis—driven by housing shortages, high health and childcare costs, and wage stagnation—can’t be solved by growth alone. But it can be mitigated by investing in the kinds of infrastructure and workforce systems that make outdoor living both possible and prosperous.
Taken together, these four reports suggest a roadmap for how to sustain growth even when consumer confidence dips:
Treat outdoor assets as infrastructure. Trails, access points, and recreation facilities are workforce attractors and business enablers, not amenities. They strengthen rural economies and help employers compete for talent that increasingly values lifestyle alongside wages.
Pair housing with access. Affordable, well-located housing near outdoor job centers ensures that people who make the outdoor economy thrive—guides, tradespeople, service workers, educators—can afford to stay. Participation becomes permanence, and livability becomes competitiveness. Granite Outdoor is a participating member of the Housing Supply Coalition, led by the Business & Industry Association of NH.
Invest in skills pipelines. Training programs in trades, recreation management, renewable energy, and sustainable tourism keep the sector growing responsibly and year-round, while connecting younger Granite Staters to career paths rooted in place.
The Takeaway
While rising costs and slowing retail may dominate national headlines, New Hampshire’s outdoor economy continues to prove its resilience. The sector’s growth—anchored in experiences, health, and place—offers a blueprint for navigating uncertainty.
The data show that even when families scale back, they don’t retreat from the outdoors. They trade consumption for connection, luxury for meaning. Trails, ski areas, and local recreation hubs are not just escapes—they’re economic engines, wellness infrastructure, and talent magnets rolled into one. In a time when affordability challenges are reshaping where people live and work, the outdoors remains one of the few things still delivering a positive return on both investment and quality of life.
As New Hampshire looks toward the next decade, this moment calls for more than optimism—it calls for strategy. The same values that make outdoor recreation thrive—collaboration, stewardship, and adaptability—are the same ones needed to address housing, workforce, and climate challenges. By putting those principles to work, the state can strengthen its identity as a place where business, community, and landscape move in sync.
When wallets tighten, people still seek what feels abundant: fresh air, open space, and a sense of belonging. In 2025, that makes the outdoors not just a reprieve from economic strain—but a foundation for New Hampshire’s future prosperity and purpose.
Next month, the Federal Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its 2024 Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account data, providing the national picture of the industry’s economic impact. It will be worth watching to see if the story those numbers tell—about spending, activity revenue, and resilience—matches what we’re already seeing here in the Granite State.